USDA September Outlook: Sugar Supply Comfortable This Year, Tighter Forecast for 2026-27

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's September crop outlook delivered a mixed message for the sweetener market: sugar supply is comfortable this year, but it is expected to tighten next season. The September 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates raised the 2025-26 U.S. sugar supply while lowering the forecast for 2026-27.

Sugar is the main ingredient in gummy candy and most other confectionery, so these two numbers matter to anyone buying or producing sweets for the U.S. market.

What the September Report Says

For the current 2025-26 marketing year, the USDA raised its supply estimate to 14.604 million short tons, up 128,260 tons from the August forecast. The main driver was imports: high-tier sugar imports were raised 8.8% to 1.068 million tons, which would be the second-highest level on record. The stocks-to-use ratio, the standard measure of supply comfort, was raised to 16.2% from 15.1% in August.

For 2026-27, the picture reverses. U.S. sugar production is projected at 8.839 million tons, down 4.6% from this year's level. Total supply is forecast at 14.268 million tons, down 336,000 tons from 2025-26, and the stocks-to-use ratio drops to 13.5%, lowered from 14.8% under the U.S.-Mexico sugar suspension agreements.

Agricultural data explains most of the decline. Sugarbeet production is forecast down about 10% from 2025, partly because of mealy bug pressure reported by processors in Florida. The bright spot is cane sugar: Louisiana is expected to set a production record for the second consecutive year.

What It Means for Sugar Costs

The short answer for buyers: no supply shock this year, but a firmer cost environment ahead. A 16.2% stocks-to-use ratio indicates adequate supply for the current season, which keeps near-term sugar availability stable for food and candy production. A 13.5% ratio for 2026-27 is still manageable, but the direction of the forecast, lower production, lower stocks, and reduced imports from Mexico, points to less room for price relief next year.

Three points are worth watching:

• **Beet supply is the weak link.** A 10% drop in sugarbeet output concentrates risk in one part of the domestic supply chain, and pest pressure could still change the final number.
• **Imports are carrying the balance.** Record-level high-tier imports are filling the gap this year. Import policy and the U.S.-Mexico suspension agreements therefore matter more than usual for 2026-27 pricing.
• **Contract timing matters.** Buyers negotiating 2027 supply agreements will do so against a tightening forecast, which typically strengthens the seller's position.

What It Means for Candy Buyers and Importers

Sugar and glucose syrup are the largest cost components in a gummy recipe, so the sweetener outlook feeds directly into confectionery pricing discussions. The current season offers a stable window: supply is adequate, and production costs for sugar-based candy should hold steady through the end of the marketing year.

Looking into 2026-27, the tightening forecast makes supplier terms more important, not less. Buyers comparing gummy programs for next year should look at how suppliers handle input cost changes across reorders, since a firming sugar market tests exactly that. Factory-direct programs with stable batch pricing across reorders, such as our wholesale gummies program, are structured to absorb this kind of commodity movement without renegotiating every order.

Importers building 2027 seasonal lines, particularly for Halloween and Christmas, will also be locking specifications and volumes in the coming months. Confirming those programs while current-season supply remains comfortable gives both sides a cleaner basis for pricing than waiting for the tighter forecast to arrive.

Sources

• Food Business News, "Sugar supplies improve this year but tighten next season" (September 16, 2026): foodbusinessnews.net
• USDA Economic Research Service, "Sugar and Sweeteners" topic page and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (September 11, 2026): ers.usda.gov